ME War Commodity Tracker

% Change Since War Began (March 1, 2026)

Strait of Hormuz Status

5% capacity via alternate pipelines

Normal Flow

~20M bpd

20% of global oil and LNG passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily

Current Status

Closed

Effectively shut since March 22. Pipelines maxed at 9M bpd.

Strategic Reserve

400M bbl

Largest strategic reserve release in history

LNG Shortfall

35M tonnes

Qatar's Ras Laffan damaged, -17% capacity

Crude Oil Price History

Natural Gas

Jet Fuel & Gasoline

Oil Price Table

Benchmark	Pre-War	Current	Change	Unit
Brent Crude	$72.00	$112.57	+56.3%	$/bbl
WTI Crude	$68.00	$99.64	+46.5%	$/bbl
Dubai Physical	$75.00	$126.00	+68.0%	$/bbl
Henry Hub Gas	$2.80	$3.035	+8.4%	$/MMBtu
TTF Gas (EUR)	€38.00	€54.52	+43.5%	EUR/MWh
Asian LNG	$14.00	$21.00	+50.0%	$/MMBtu

Precious & Industrial Metals

Gold (Safe Haven)

$4,493/oz

Up 2.1% weekly. Demand surged on geopolitical risk.

Aluminum

$3,284.50/mt

Driven by rising energy costs. Smelting is energy-intensive.

Copper

$5.558/lb

Supply chain concerns. Hit $6.06/lb peak on March 1.

Metals Summary

Metal	Pre-War	Current	Change	Primary Factor
Gold	$4,400/oz	$4,493/oz	+2.1%	Safe haven demand
Aluminum	$3,000/mt	$3,284.50/mt	+9.5%	Energy cost spike
Copper	$5.20/lb	$5.558/lb	+6.9%	Supply chain risk

Fertilizer & Agricultural Prices

Fertilizer Detail

Product	Pre-War	Current	Change
Urea (Egypt FOB)	$400-490/ton	~$700/ton	+43-75%
Urea (US Retail)	~$600/ton	$674/ton	+12%
Anhydrous Ammonia	~$750/ton	$998/ton	+33%
UAN 28%	~$400/ton	$464/ton	+16%
Potash	~$420/ton	$487/ton	+16%

Food Security Warning

High Risk

1/3 of global urea trade passes through Hormuz. Spring growing season disrupted globally.

USDA Report

$998/ton

Anhydrous ammonia average per USDA Production Cost Report, March 20, 2026.

War Timeline & Price Events

Date	Event	Brent	WTI	Impact
Feb 28	Pre-war baseline	~$72	~$68	Normal
Mar 1	War begins	~$78	~$73	+8%
Mar 5	Initial Hormuz tensions	$83	~$78	+15%
Mar 11-20	Iraq force majeure, Kuwait attacks	$98-112	$90-98	+36-56%
Mar 22	Hormuz fully closed	$112	$99	+56%
Mar 24	Trump delay announcement	$99	$86	Temporary dip
Mar 26	Iran rejects direct talks	$108	~$95	+50%
Mar 28	Biggest 1-day move in 4 years	$112.57	$99.64	+56%

Global Impact Assessment

Aviation

Crisis

Jet fuel doubled ($2.41→$5/gal). Airlines rerouting flights. Airfares surging. Australia fuel shortages.

Energy Supply

Severe

IEA: worse than 1970s crises + Ukraine combined. LNG shortfall 35M tonnes. Qatar damaged.

Food Security

Warning

Fertilizer up 43-75%. Spring planting season affected. Global food price inflation risk.

Transport

Disrupted

15% of global air traffic rerouted. Shipping lanes closed. Fuel costs rising everywhere.

Outlook & Risks

Risk	Probability	Impact
Extended Hormuz closure (>2 weeks)	High	Oil $130+, global recession
Further refinery damage	Medium	Product shortages
Houthi Red Sea attacks	Medium	Alt. routes also cut
Strategic reserve depletion	Medium	Price buffer lost
Negotiated ceasefire	Low	Prices -20-30%

Commodity Price Tracker